Stage Twelve - Abductive Arguments


  • A frequency tree is a graphical representation of probabilities based on the application of those probabilities to some number of instances.

  • You can layer probabilities in order to see how likely certain events are, given other events.

  • This helps us appreciate the importance of the base rate, or the probability of a claim before considering any further evidence.


  • Example #1 (0:00) - simple case of mapping an abductive argument.

  • Example #2 (1:48) - real life example of an abductive argument.