Stage Twelve - Abductive Arguments
A frequency tree is a graphical representation of probabilities based on the application of those probabilities to some number of instances.
You can layer probabilities in order to see how likely certain events are, given other events.
This helps us appreciate the importance of the base rate, or the probability of a claim before considering any further evidence.
Example #1 (0:00) - simple case of mapping an abductive argument.
Example #2 (1:48) - real life example of an abductive argument.